NBA Basketball: A Game of Runs?
A Deeper Dive into Scoring Runs by NBA Teams, Inspired by Evan Miya's 'Kill Shot'
“Basketball is a game of runs.” This phrase is often uttered by coaches, analysts, or broadcasters, but what does it really mean? For those of you who might not be familiar with the game of basketball, a scoring run occurs when a team scores multiple points consecutively without allowing the opposing team to score. These scoring runs can create significant shifts in momentum during the game.
I enjoy reading a lot of basketball analysis, and one of my favorite sites to browse is evanmiya.com, run by Evan Miyakawa. Evan focuses on college basketball, and his analyses are top tier. His content includes team and player rankings, transfer rankings, interviews, blog posts, and much more. One blog post that particularly caught my eye is titled “The Power of The 10-0 Run.” Before March Madness, Evan examined the runs for and runs conceded of all 68 tournament teams. In doing so, he identified some pretty interesting trends.
I wanted to apply that same methodology to NBA teams. While it may not be a surefire method of evaluating teams as a whole, it gives a better idea of which teams are more explosive or which teams are easier to put away. As you’ll see throughout this post, the results are quite intriguing. So without further ado, let’s dive in.
I used R to scrape NBA play-by-play data, and after some clickity-clacks on the ol’ keyboard, I ended up with a function capable of generating every run that a team had and conceded in a specific season. I took it a step further though, by adjusting for strength of schedule and examining home/away splits. Take a look:
Beautiful, isn’t it? So what does this plot tell us exactly? Just a quick glance reveals some pretty distinct clusters. Let’s define some of them:
Red Cluster: These teams give up way more runs per game than they go on (around 0.9 runs per game—that’s almost one 10-0 run every game!). It’s no surprise to see some of the league’s weaker teams on this end of the spectrum.
CHA, DET, MEM, POR, SAS, TOR
Green Cluster: These teams go on more runs per game than they give up and can easily take over a game in a flash. The Kings are the most explosive team in the league, averaging about 1 run per game, while giving up almost 0.8 runs per game.
LAC, MIN, NOP, OKC, SAC
Yellow Cluster: These teams are middle of the pack in terms of runs for, but they won’t give up a lot of runs either. Except for the Lakers, every team in this cluster is in the bottom half of the league in pace.
BOS, DEN, LAL, NYK, ORL
Blue Cluster: These teams are the streakiest—they give up around the same amount of runs per game as they average themselves. Their games are probably a little more entertaining, as no lead is safe with them.
DAL, MIA, MIL, PHI, PHX
Next, I calculated the net runs per game, or Runs Margin, found below. Out of the top eight teams in runs margin, only the kings are “in the red” in terms of runs per game they give up. Additionally, teams like the Celtics, Nuggets, and Knicks might not be “in the green” for runs for, but make up for it on the defensive end, as all have runs conceded per game of less than 0.5.
Okay, this is nice and all, but I know you want to see some actual numbers. Well, reader, you read my mind. Let’s discuss some of the implications in terms of wins and losses:
A team with at least one 10-0 run wins ~64% of the time
A team with at least two 10-0 runs wins ~ 79% of the time
A team with more 10-0 runs than their opponent wins ~77% of the time
15 out of 16 playoff teams in the 23-24 season had positive run margins (sorry, Cavs)
Let’s also take a look at the profiles of the last four NBA Champions:
Every champion since 2021 had a runs margin of 0.2 or greater. To put that into perspective, each one of these teams would’ve been inside the top eight last season.
I also wanted to look into which teams are most affected by home court advantage. Obviously, some teams struggle more on the road, while others play much better at home. Here are the results:
The four quadrants each represent various team scenarios of home vs. away performance. For reference, teams in the upper right quadrant go on more runs than the other team both at home and away, while teams in the lower left quadrant have less than their opponents in both scenarios.
What stands out to me is the performance of the Warriors and the Cavaliers, who both have better run margins on the road compared to at home. The Thunder also have the highest home margin in the league and it’s not even close. Looking at away performance, the Pelicans and Timberwolves tied for the best runs margin on the road (they both had some of the best road records in the NBA). The Jazz actually have the worst away margin of any team, but their performance sees a boost when they play at home.
Lastly, I just want to reiterate that there is no “one size fits all” model that can help predict an NBA champion. However, tools and analyses like this can provide a better understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of teams, which can be applied to game strategy. In the future, I plan to examine the numbers of how teams perform by half/quarter to see if any more patterns emerge. But for now, this will have to do.
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Great read!